Simulating the Spread of Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 Considering the Effect of the First World WarThe Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919, also called Spanish Flu Pandemic, wasone of the severest pandemics in history. It is thought that the First WorldWar much influenced the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, we model thepandemic considering both civil and military traffic. We propose a hybrid modelto determine how the pandemic spread through the world. Our approach considersboth the SEIR-based model for local areas and the network model for globalconnection between countries. First, we reproduce the situation in 12countries. Then, we simulate another scenario: there was no military trafficduring the pandemic, to determine the influence of the influenced of the war onthe pandemic. By considering the simulation results, we find that the influenceof the war varies in countries; in countries which were deeply involved in thewar, the infections were much influenced by the war, while in countries whichwere not much engaged in the war, the infections were not influenced by thewar.
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posted to Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed on Wed 2nd Jun 10
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